{
  "schema": "com.catellix.mvps.v11_evidence_v1",
  "produced_at": "2026-05-26T12:15:49+00:00",
  "doc_companion": "docs/MVPS_THREE_LAYER_MATHEMATICAL_EVIDENCE.txt",
  "code_companion": "scripts/render_v11_evidence.py",
  "synthetic_warning": "All input data is synthetic, generated for visual review of the v1.1 specification. NOT real Internet measurement. See open questions E2, E12, M16, M24 in the companion document.",
  "T_ticks": 300,
  "event_t_default": 150,
  "seed_base": 4242,
  "clinical_cases": [
    {
      "fig": "v11_case1_baseline.png",
      "sha256": "230fc44380bbae460e9fb92c523a18d76ddfdc97bffef7add38cc28fe4aec28f",
      "name": "BASELINE",
      "label_pt": "Caso 1 -- Linha de base saudavel",
      "expected_signature": "C_1, C_2, C_3 todos ~ 1; H ~ 0",
      "phi_k_expected": "K_BASELINE",
      "drivers": "Sem evento. Apenas ruido AR(1) gaussiano de baixa amplitude; rede em equilibrio.",
      "C_final": [
        0.9895528321629512,
        0.9768292806355339,
        0.9952346761835572
      ],
      "H_max": 0.1192192739612967,
      "H_final": 0.03872221730416513,
      "D2_max": 14.214234934653396,
      "phi_d_min": 0.10287119682685325,
      "tau_CSD_endpoint": 0.5264690832085167,
      "event_t": null
    },
    {
      "fig": "v11_case2_bgp_routing_instability.png",
      "sha256": "c6af03c138a67a67b0ed1abeb23f3b2d4b3b197552b4cf1b4ce1d010927b9eb1",
      "name": "BGP_ROUTING_INSTABILITY",
      "label_pt": "Caso 2 -- Reconvergencia BGP (route flap)",
      "expected_signature": "C_3 colapsa em t=150; C_1 e C_2 estaveis",
      "phi_k_expected": "K_INFORMATIONAL",
      "drivers": "BGP UPDATE em t=150. RIB reconverge em ~25 ticks. Vantages observam paths divergentes durante a janela de instabilidade -> Jaccard de arestas cai.",
      "C_final": [
        0.9345762294000759,
        0.9773714621218191,
        0.9909920387874738
      ],
      "H_max": 3.9450803948229787,
      "H_final": 0.09959935353981744,
      "D2_max": 356.6743431672086,
      "phi_d_min": 1.6433427311090741e-25,
      "tau_CSD_endpoint": 0.5175934201579104,
      "event_t": 150
    },
    {
      "fig": "v11_case3_congestion.png",
      "sha256": "b3201dd8839d6e122fa852b659eb12a3ff55071ecacb426dd3486da679c47161",
      "name": "CONGESTION",
      "label_pt": "Caso 3 -- Congestionamento progressivo",
      "expected_signature": "C_1 cai gradualmente; tau_CSD precursor ANTES de C_1 atingir threshold critico",
      "phi_k_expected": "K_DRIFT",
      "drivers": "Filas crescentes elevam variancia de RTT. Scheffer (2009): variancia e autocorrelacao sobem ANTES da bifurcacao -> Critical Slowing Down detectavel.",
      "C_final": [
        0.3188320369886694,
        0.9936353018957623,
        0.9823397141814199
      ],
      "H_max": 2.0447126665048256,
      "H_final": 1.1672939731596697,
      "D2_max": 277.6263225075803,
      "phi_d_min": 5.111486482416566e-20,
      "tau_CSD_endpoint": 0.5566231570733373,
      "event_t": 180
    },
    {
      "fig": "v11_case4_causal_breach.png",
      "sha256": "fdb4d308ccfcdf2852e721273d90d8110586825851d5531d6124518e42e7ec14",
      "name": "CAUSAL_BREACH",
      "label_pt": "Caso 4 -- Quebra causal (clock skew / c_f errado)",
      "expected_signature": "C_1 colapsa em t=150; C_2, C_3 estaveis",
      "phi_k_expected": "K_CAUSAL_BREACH",
      "drivers": "Clock skew injetado em t=150 faz RTT_a + RTT_b cair abaixo de 2*d_ab/c_f. C_1^Einstein -> 0 nos pares afetados; topologia inalterada.",
      "C_final": [
        0.16324845627376341,
        0.9995922686835653,
        0.982077446177707
      ],
      "H_max": 2.18246464103144,
      "H_final": 1.8309748895174742,
      "D2_max": 289.15200758163627,
      "phi_d_min": 8.08463817834572e-21,
      "tau_CSD_endpoint": 0.49749261766493125,
      "event_t": 150
    },
    {
      "fig": "v11_case5_f001_gauge_gap.png",
      "sha256": "b7ce6fdbd68562c2d6d7a2848428765172abc0e024bf39c50b6052d252a33fcb",
      "name": "F001_GAUGE_GAP",
      "label_pt": "Caso 5 -- F001 gauge gap (canonicalizacao)",
      "expected_signature": "C_2 ~ 0 desde t=0; C_3 ~ 1; rho = C_2/C_3 -> 0",
      "phi_k_expected": "K_INFORMATIONAL",
      "drivers": "Dois canonicalizadores (ex: BGP_RIB vs PrincipiaDB) produzem fingerprints diferentes para a MESMA topologia. Divergencia de implementacao, nao de rede.",
      "C_final": [
        0.970131114243516,
        0.043888554839742244,
        0.9963434268409765
      ],
      "H_max": 3.733205115101866,
      "H_final": 3.160089024752877,
      "D2_max": 40.2836180374322,
      "phi_d_min": 0.0015878428436838445,
      "tau_CSD_endpoint": 0.46886211124742294,
      "event_t": 0
    }
  ],
  "conjecture_tests": {
    "T1_detSigma": {
      "fig": "v11_fig6_T1_detSigma.png",
      "sha256": "edb255dbdf74bae0bd3163d20d7d16a3a4e60f503399419688825e5d126044a6",
      "ratio_max_transition_over_median_eq": 1.5236046226891753,
      "median_equilibrium": 5.170484666266117e-08,
      "max_transition": 7.877774339066553e-08,
      "verdict": "Fraca",
      "n_eq": 450,
      "n_tr": 200,
      "n_rec": 300
    },
    "tau_CSD_AUC": {
      "fig": "v11_fig7_tauCSD_auc.png",
      "sha256": "153fac7f3199076cf5da2775b964e50b37f1dfa6ea43b5a8ea27607bb0e4353b",
      "AUC": 0.541525,
      "n_positives": 200,
      "n_negatives": 200,
      "mean_pos": 0.5067154271727369,
      "mean_neg": 0.4997364212444441,
      "verdict": "Fraco"
    },
    "Phi_D_FAR_autocorr": {
      "fig": "v11_fig8_phiD_FAR.png",
      "sha256": "528e5fae24b9a80d37c33ed0f73c2c42317505123b2c26865e175213402c5da4",
      "rhos": [
        0.0,
        0.3,
        0.5,
        0.7,
        0.9
      ],
      "far_watch": [
        0.0493,
        0.04835,
        0.0493,
        0.0491,
        0.0497
      ],
      "far_alarm": [
        0.01005,
        0.0101,
        0.01,
        0.0091,
        0.01
      ],
      "nominal_watch": 0.05,
      "nominal_alarm": 0.01,
      "verdict": "Drift visivel acima de rho>=0.5"
    },
    "MI_orthogonality": {
      "fig": "v11_fig9_MI_orthogonality.png",
      "sha256": "3055d5032aeaab8996f37acce29703027e6fb85a62581eeab4b41f5d9341b4c1",
      "MI_C1_C2": 0.008590323749618978,
      "MI_C1_C3": 0.015839037084909312,
      "MI_C2_C3": 0.010840310080322522,
      "finite_sample_bias_floor_bits": 0.011541560327111709,
      "N": 1000,
      "verdict": "Ortogonais"
    }
  },
  "figures": [
    "v11_case1_baseline.png",
    "v11_case2_bgp_routing_instability.png",
    "v11_case3_congestion.png",
    "v11_case4_causal_breach.png",
    "v11_case5_f001_gauge_gap.png",
    "v11_fig6_T1_detSigma.png",
    "v11_fig7_tauCSD_auc.png",
    "v11_fig8_phiD_FAR.png",
    "v11_fig9_MI_orthogonality.png"
  ]
}